During a northern hemisphere tour which has been full of promise, the All Blacks will hope that their good work does not go to waste against Italy.
Scott Robertson’s men may have lost last time out in Paris, going down 30-29 to France, but it was another step in the right direction, following on from wins against England and Ireland.
Granted, New Zealand failed to get the job done when in control at the Stade de France, unlike their successes in Dublin and London prior to that, but it was yet another suggestion that they are developing nicely.
There is a lot to like about the All Blacks at the moment, from the scrummaging prowess of the front-row to the control and creativity of half-back duo Beauden Barrett and Cam Roigard. When you add into the mix the youngsters that have come through in Wallace Sititi and Peter Lakai, Robertson’s side look well set heading into 2025.
Of course, the pessimists may worry about it all unravelling against Italy this weekend, but even they shouldn’t be too alarmed heading into the Turin clash. You just have to look at the Azzurri’s form in the Autumn Nations Series so far to know that they are still some way from matching the All Blacks’ levels.
The hammering by Argentina was a concern for Gonzalo Quesada but the performance which followed that – against Georgia in Genoa – really set the alarm bells ringing.
They must get some credit for overturning a 17-6 half-time deficit and earning a three-point triumph over the Lelos, but it is hardly a display which suggests that they will even get close to competing with New Zealand on Saturday.
We can’t see a repeat happening of the 96-17 embarrassment from last year’s Rugby World Cup, but the All Blacks will expect to run in the tries.
Where the game will be won
Basics and belief are the two watchwords for the Azzurri. The former simply refers to set-piece, defence and intensity, three things that absolutely deserted them in last year’s World Cup and which have not been particularly evident in the 2024 Autumn Nations Series so far.
Meanwhile, the latter is all about mentality as, when New Zealand started well, the Italians imploded and allowed their opponents to run riot. Even if Robertson’s outfit begin on the front foot this weekend, Italy have to keep their heads, otherwise the hosts are in for another long night if they fail to hit those relatively simple targets.
Another focus for the home side will be on their handling and control. The Italians are a team that has some talented backs and have a penchant for moving the ball through the hands, but they can’t overplay as turnovers against the All Blacks will 𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁 them.
Equally, it is important the half-backs get control of the match, kick well and don’t give too many opportunities for the visitors to counter-attack. If they do then the New Zealand back three will have 80 minutes of fun.
Ultimately, the tourists are clear favourites and should rack up a dominant win, but they are at the end of a long and tiring season, where the pressure and scrutiny has been unrelenting in Robertson’s first year in charge.
They have, on occasions, come unstuck in the final game of their year-end tour, so the attitude needs to be right and the execution must be close to its usual standards. Should those things be on point then the All Blacks will have too much quality for the Azzurri, even if their opponents somehow manage to upset their rhythm.
What they said
Lock Tupou Vaa’i says that the All Blacks are determined to end the year on a high.
Despite four losses in 2024 – three of those coming in a disappointing Rugby Championship – there has been a clear improvement over the course of the campaign.
“I think it’s been a roller coaster ride of emotions. We’ve had a couple losses in South Africa. But it’s been good,” Vaa’i said.
“I really feel that our group is gelling well together and we’re slowly figuring out how how we want to play and how we want to defend. It’s been a big year, but we’ve had some good learnings along the way.”
As for Italy, Vaa’i believes that the hosts have the ability to cause them problems, despite that dominant performance by New Zealand last year.
“They’re just a big physical pack. We played them in the World Cup last year and we know they’ve got a high s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁 set, especially their backs,” he added.
Players to watch
Thankfully for the Italians, one of their top-class players, Ange Capuozzo, has returned and will be crucial if they are to punch any holes in the All Blacks defence. Capuozzo is a genuine game-breaker who has been in fine form for Toulouse, so it is vital he takes that into Saturday’s contest. If the visitors kick badly then he and back three partner Monty Ioane have the ability to hurt Robertson’s side.
In the midfield, they must also watch out for Tommaso Menoncello, who is an exceptionally gifted young player, but ultimately the platform will be set up front and that is where the concern lies. Both props, Danilo Fischetti and Marco Riccioni, are talented but need huge games, while hooker Gianmarco Lucchesi has to connect well with lock Dino Lamb, who had a fine game against Georgia.
For the All Blacks, it is a significant match for Sam Cane and TJ Perenara as two great servants to New Zealand bow out. They are playing their final Tests as they prepare to go overseas having signed deals in Japan. Cane starts at flanker having recovered from a head injury, while Perenara is on the bench, in what will be a huge occasion for both. They have performed admirably in their final season and will want to go out on a high.
No doubt their team-mates will be doing all they can to give them the perfect send-off. That includes Anton Lienert-Brown, who gets an opportunity alongside Rieko Ioane in the midfield following Jordie Barrett’s injury.
Lienert-Brown also filled in for Barrett in the final match of the Rugby Championship against the Wallabies and produced an outstanding showing, so he will want to give Robertson something to think about looking ahead to 2025.
Elsewhere, Ethan de Groot is back after initially being dropped for not meeting ‘internal standards’ and he is joined in the pack by Patrick Tuipulotu, who starts ahead of Vaa’i. De Groot will certainly be helped in the set-piece by having the extra weight of Tuipulotu in the front five as he seeks to get back in the good books of the head coach.
Main head-to-head
Wallace Sititi was quite rightly nominated for the men’s XVs Breakthrough Player of the Year award and the Chiefs star will hope that what he produces in Turin on Saturday helps his case. Sititi comes up against Sebastian Negri in what will be another interesting battle.
They are slightly different players with Negri’s best work very much coming at close quarters, while the All Black, with his tremendous s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁 set, can operate in the wider channels, but they could also lock horns on a few occasions.
Both are excellent defensively and potent at the breakdown, which means that they will be on alert to poach opposition ball when the opportunity arises. Equally, both love the physical confrontation and could be squaring up to each other close to the ruck and at the set-piece. As mentioned, Sititi likes to roam, but the impressive thing about the youngster is that he’s also good in the tighter exchanges and as a result, a fascinating duel awaits.
Prediction
We can’t see anything other than a dominant New Zealand win. Italy have been poor in the Autumn Nations Series so far and while the visitors are at the end of a long season, the hosts simply don’t have the quality to capitalise. All Blacks by 35 points.
Previous results
2023: New Zealand won 96-17 in Lyon
2021: New Zealand won 49-7 in Rome
2019: Match cancelled in Toyota
2018: New Zealand won 66-3 in Rome
2016: New Zealand won 68-10 in Rome
2012: New Zealand won 42-10 in Rome
2009: New Zealand won 20-6 in Milan
2009: New Zealand won 27-6 in Christchurch
2007: New Zealand won 76-14 in Marseille
2004: New Zealand won 59-10 in Rome
The teams
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Jacopo Trulla, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (c), 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Ross Vintcent, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Dino Lamb, 4 Federico Ruzza, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Alessandro Izekor, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Leonardo Marin 23 Marco Zanon
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Mark Tele’a, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 David Havili, 23 Damian McKenzie
Date: Saturday, November 23
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Turin
Kick-off: 21:10 local (20:10 GMT, 09:10 NZDT)
Referee: Pierre Brousset (France)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Ludovic Cayre (France)
TMO: Tual Trainini (France)
