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Dissecting the Phillies’ assault on Shohei Ohtani

As much as we want to avoid it, the Shohei Ohtani hype is real. The moment he signed with the Dodgers, many people looked at the schedule to see what dates needed to be circled on the calendar to make sure everything was clear for when he came to their town. Knowing that the Phillies and Dodgers were both playoff caliber teams, watching how the Phillies attacked him once they finally did meet would be something of a precursor to those more important matchups in October.

It’s those games within the game that make baseball great, the chess matchups between pitcher and hitter. What pitches they looking to throw him? What specific zones are they attacking him at? Does it matter who is on the mound, meaning left hander or right hander, when it comes to places to attack? Now that we have some examples, let’s look at each at bat from this week’s series to see if we can glean anything important.

Tuesday, 1st inning vs. Zack Wheeler

Facing the team’s best pitcher, you can almost tell that Ohtani is swinging at the first ball near the zone he sees. It’s a tactic used by a lot of teams since Wheeler is near the strike zone so much. Rafael Marchan sets up inside, but Wheeler misses arm side, luckily with enough run that Ohtani fouls it off.

Another inside fastball, only Marchan wants this one up. This time, Wheeler gets it there and Ohtani can’t do anything with it.

Good morning, good afternoon, good night. Coming back up and in, it’s clear the team is looking to attack that particular zone. Good thing Wheeler has the velocity and command needed to get it there.

Tuesday, 3rd inning vs. Wheeler

So now with Ohtani coming back up, does the team go back to the same spot, attacking the same quadrant as the first inning, or do they try something else knowing Ohtani is likely prepared?

Wisely, Wheeler drops in a curveball that is buried deep in the zone. Is it a strike? Not according to the broadcast’s box, but even if Ohtani swings at it, there probably isn’t much he is going to be able to do with it. It’s kind of what makes him a great hitter – if he can’t do damage with it, he’s spitting on it.

Now that they’ve stolen a strike, Wheeler tries to go back up to Ohtani, but this time, he misses a bit too much over the plate and it’s dunked into left field for a single. Statcast calls that pitch a cutter, so the theory behind the pitch is sound. If Wheeler can put it where he wants it, it’s probably a broken bat or better.

Tuesday, 5th inning vs. Wheeler

Another cutter, intended to be up and in, that misses. By now, we know that Wheeler’s back was starting to bother him, which makes one wonder if he was struggling to command his stuff during this at bat.

Marchan is set up for a curveball to be thrown on the outside edge, likely to be buried again since he’s set up a low and away. Again, another miss, this one worse than before. You can clearly see the back is bothering him.

A cutter in, this one way in.

A 3-0 fastball is the weapon of choice for almost everyone, but Wheeler is smart enough to not give him one down the, uh, middle. Trying for the outside corner, he misses and with a 9-1 lead at this point, it’s not the worst thing to walk him. Ohtani would leave the game after this at bat, but we can probably discern the team’s plan of attack from right handed pitching: hard stuff up and in, slow stuff down but not necessarily away.

Wednesday, 1st inning vs. Cristopher Sanchez

A different sided pitcher, this time a left hander in Sanchez, gets to face Ohtani, which might mean an entirely new plan.

First pitch of the game is a big miss by Sanchez. He’s supposed to go outside edge to hit Garrett Stubbs’ glove, but he misses down the middle of the plate. Luckily for him, it’s a sinker that Ohtani cannot lift, otherwise that pitch might be in the third deck. A plan begins to form.

Wednesday, 3rd inning, vs. Sanchez

This is interesting to me. Sanchez throws a near perfect pitch, down and in at 95, dotting the inside black. Ohtani seems genuinely surprised at the pitch. Is he surprised they went there? Is he surprised it was called a strike? Very interesting…

Going back to his best pitch, Sanchez misses again, but it’s a good miss. It’s a changeup that was supposed to be down, but ends up down, away and way out of the zone. Like it is with all premier hitters, if a pitcher is going to miss, he needs to MISS.

When you’ve got an elite changeup, and I think we can call Sanchez’s changeup “elite” at this point, doubling up on it isn’t a bad idea. This might have been Sanchez’s best pitch of the night.

TRIPLING UP ON A CHANGEUP?!?!? Seems like a bold strategy, Cotton.

This is a good pitch, just sketchy execution. Coming back with a 95-mph sinker, one that almost no one can lift this year, is a good idea. He just misses his spot. If he hits Stubbs’ glove, Ohtani will have almost no shot at doing anything with it.

On the 3-2 pitch, it has to be nearly perfect. Anything short of that and the Dodgers have a run on the board. Sanchez puts another sinker in on Ohtani’s hands and it’s a harmless ground ball to Trea Turner. This was a fascinating at bat.

Wednesday, 5th inning vs. Sanchez

Here, we have Ohtani batting with men on for the first time in the series. Runners on the corners with one out, so the first time it’s a high leverage situation, which might alter the approach the team has against him.

Starting off with a changeup that drifts in, Sanchez misses his intended spot, but it’s another good miss. It’s far enough in that if Ohtani is out in front, he’s going to yank it foul.

This is just good hitting by Ohtani. Recognizing that the team is going to attack him on the inside half, he pulls his hands in and gets the barrel to the baseball, driving an RBI single into left to tie the game. Sometimes, you have to tip your cap to the hitter and this is one of those times. This is an outstanding piece of hitting.

Wednesday, 7th inning vs. Matt Strahm

This is the big matchup of the night. Strahm has reached the point in the season where he is the preferred reliever when a tough left handed hitter is on the mound in a high leverage situation. He entered the game to face Ohtani specifically. So far, with Sanchez, the plan felt like to go hard stuff in, slow stuff away. Does it play out like that?

A tiny bit of a miss here by Strahm (Stubbs wants that pitch more in on the hands), but still an excellent start to the at bat. Were Ohtani to get something on it, it might end up on his toes. Will the pattern of hard in/slow away hold up?

I think we can all agree that Strahm got away with one there. Intended to be down and out, that pitch was way too hittable. Even Ohtani knows it.

This is just an outstanding pitch by Strahm. Is it a strike? No, it’s pretty clearly outside of the zone, but it serves two purposes: something that is close enough to maybe get a called strike, but also able to set up the rest of the at bat….

…as Strahm demonstrates by going down and out with a slider to get Ohtani to chase. The sequencing here in this spot in the game is outstanding and outside of the miss on the 0-1 pitch, so is the execution. This is what Matt Strahm is an All-Star.

Thursday, 1st inning vs. Aaron Nola

So now, we’ve got a bit of a playbook with how the team will approach Ohtani. Does it continue?

Yup, right back to the right handed pitcher playbook. Hard fastball, up and in. This one leaks a bit towards the middle, not enough that Ohtani can get around it quick enough but still, the intent is clear.

Here’s a wrinkle: Nola goes with a cutter in. Wheeler attempted one on Tuesday and the same result happens, but it’s clear that the team sees right handed pitchers needing to get in on his hands. If you miss, you have to miss all the way in.

I’m sensing a theme with Nola.

When Nola has his good curveball working, he is nigh unhittable. This is a nasty pitch that, if he’s going to throw it in, is in the only spot it can be.

A bit more of a miss here as this pitch was intended to be, you guessed it, up and in on Ohtani’s hands, but he wasn’t able to get on top of it and he lofts a harmless flyball to right field. Good sequencing here, following the plan set out by Wheeler two nights before.

Thursday, 2nd inning vs. Nola

This is theater right here. The bases are loaded and Nola was laboring a bit. There’s only one out and the Dodgers have their best chance to get some kind of momentum in a series where they have had very little. By this point, Ohtani should be well aware of what is coming.

Thaaaaaaaaaaank you, Mr. Umpire.

This is not a strike, but Nola gets it and it truly changes the at bat. If this is called a ball, it puts Ohtani in the driver’s seat. Now, seeing that that pitch is going to be called a strike, he needs to go on the defensive. Nola is able to attack him and get him confused, which he then does with precision.

Remember what I said about if Nola has his good curveball?

Up and in, good, good…

Now, if you’re Ohtani here, what are you looking for? Are you looking hard in? Curveball away? That’s been the pattern and it seems that when they’ve wanted to get him out, the Phillies have gotten into his hands.

My friends, that’s just good pitching.

The sequence of the game. Ohtani was completely fooled by that curveball, set up by not only the previous at bat, but also by what Wheeler did to him Tuesday. This is one of those at bats where you can feel how the team has been setting him up for moments like this.

Tuesday, 5th inning vs. Nola

By now, Ohtani has to know what they’re going to do, right?

A changeup? What?

ANOTHER changeup?!? This guy has no idea what is coming next.

lol

By now, they’ve just got Ohtani completely off his game. Yes, they’re still attacking him up and in. Yes, Nola is able to bury the backfoot curveball. Now, in this at bat, he’s shown a changeup that Ohtani has to respect. However, when push comes to shove and an out is needed, Nola attacks the same spot the team has seen success this series.

Thursday, 7th innings vs. Matt Strahm

Rob Thomson has clearly marked Strahm as the guy he wants facing Ohtani late in a game. It could be they like the matchup, it could be because Strahm is their best left handed option right now, it could be a combination of both. We saw the night before how left handers look to go after Ohtani, so will the pattern continue?

That’s twice that Strahm has faced Ohtani and twice he’s missed with something over the middle of the plate. No doubt he will file that away for the future.

As you will recall, Strahm tried that exact same pitch the previous night and also did not get the call. Good hitters know this and if Ohtani sees that pitch, he’s likely taking it all the way, thinking Strahm is going to put it there just out of the zone as a chase pitch. This is also something for Strahm to remember as if he can bring that pitch in a few inches, he might be able to steal a strike in a big spot.

A nasty slider from Strahm that induces a harmless groundball and ends the matchup this particular series.

So what did we learn?

As stated many times before, there was a clear plan that was put in place for Ohtani and the pitching staff executed it perfectly. While it’s hard to keep an elite hitter like him down long, there was little damage done during the series. Kudos to Caleb Cotham and the rest of the coaching staff for putting together a plan that worked.

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