It may only be week one of the end-of-year campaign – well, week two if you’re the All Blacks – but the magnitude of Saturday’s clash at Twickenham cannot be underestimated.
As has already been seen this year, matches between England and New Zealand are always huge, but this one is significant given what’s at stake.
Both teams, to some extent, come into this encounter under pressure. For the Red Rose, they will be desperate for a victory after narrowly missing out in July, while for their opponents, they have something to prove following a disappointing Rugby Championship.
It is has been mixed start for Scott Robertson as the All Blacks’ head coach. Although it is understandable, considering the experience they lost at the end of the Rugby World Cup, the fans’ patience will be tested if they have a poor November.
Robertson has had enough time to experiment and to blood some youngsters – the fruits of that being shown by the displays of youngsters Wallace Sititi and Cortez Ratima – but now is the time for them to deliver on what is a tough tour.
England boss Steve Borthwick probably has slightly more leeway but his challenge will be to turn positive performances into results. In the five games since the Scotland disaster, they have by and large played well but they have only picked up two wins and one of those was against Japan.
On another day, the Red Rose could have easily turned over New Zealand twice, as well as France in the Six Nations, but ultimately they failed and the Englishmen need to rectify that over the next month.
It is important for Borthwick and his developing side to make sure that they don’t continue to be ‘nearly men’. If England do once again falter then doubts will start to creep in looking ahead to 2025.
Where the game will be won
England’s failures in July – as well as the All Blacks’ success – came in the set-piece and the final 20 minutes. Since then, New Zealand’s struggles towards the end of games have become a feature of their performances, while two key props, including English loosehead destroyer Fletcher Newell, have been omitted.
It does feel like a game where the first and fourth quarters will be particularly vital. The start will be crucial for the hosts, who have not played a Test since July, while the tourists will go into the encounter battle-hardened after a bruising Rugby Championship schedule, which saw them play the Springboks twice in South Africa.
The Red Rose therefore need to set the tone physically, in defence and in the contact area, while the replacements have to be much more effective as the game reaches its conclusion. Equally, it will be fascinating to see how connected they are without the ball having changed defence coaches with Joe El-Abd replacing the highly regarded Felix Jones.
Robertson’s men will certainly look to exploit that and they very much have the potential to when you delve into the individual quality they have. There will be an onus on the half-backs to get them into the right areas of the field, however, with the kicking game a concern on occasion in 2024 but, if they can, then they have a back three which is both good aerially and a threat on the counter.
What they said
England’s star back-rower Ben Earl believes that now is the time for the team to deliver after a number of agonising defeats.
“We are growing as a team and it was so close [in the summer against New Zealand],” Earl told BBC Sport.
“But you don’t win tight Test matches by being close, so I think the lessons we have learned are valuable ones – how to finish games and keep your discipline in the last quarter, how you always need to be alive and concentrating against a team like the All Blacks.
“It is something that doesn’t just happen, you have to go through some heartache to then win a couple. We feel we’ve done that now.
“We have looked at each other over the last couple of weeks and thought the time is now. We can’t say we are an inexperienced group now and have had continuity around selection for 18 months or so.
“I think it is time now to get over the line in close games.”
England team v All Blacks: Winners and losers as Steve Borthwick makes ‘brave calls’ with Henry Slade’s value made ‘crystal clear’ and ‘heavy hitter’ snubbed
Meanwhile, All Blacks coach Jason Ryan does not expect to see the same “pictures” from England when they face-off at Twickenham.
“We’ve got no doubt they will have some different pictures for this Test that we haven’t seen in the first couple when we were in New Zealand,” Ryan said.
“We’re always trying to evolve, and it’s England at home and on their home ground they are a different team. We know we’ve got to start the Test match with a lot of velocity and high impact to get into the game early.
“We’re trending in the right direction around giving our backline some quality ball so we can play some footy.
“We’ve looked at this Test closely and we know that in six days following we’ve got Ireland, so there’s not a lot of preparation. It’s about what’s in front of us now and preparing with respect for England and not getting too far ahead of ourselves.”
Players to watch
While Borthwick opted for continuity in squad selection, there has been some disruption leading into this campaign. It started with the news about Jones, who resigned from his role as defence coach. El-Abd has since joined the set-up so it will be fascinating to see how the team operates in that area over the next month.
Henry Slade was a key figure under Jones having led their extreme Springboks-style blitz and no doubt he will once again have plenty of responsibility with the new coach at the helm. However, the outside centre has only just returned from injury so the All Blacks will seek to test his match fitness.
Indeed, Slade could well have a lot of work to do without the ball if Ben Spencer struggles. Spencer has been the form scrum-half in the Premiership over the past two years, so the Bath man very much deserves his opportunity, but his previous cameos off the bench have not inspired confidence. Nevertheless, he has rarely come across as a player necessarily suited to a bench role and Borthwick will hope that is the case on Saturday.
Elsewhere, the scrum continued to be a problem in New Zealand and they will fear a repeat at Twickenham. Props Ellis Genge and Will Stuart have been handed the responsibility this weekend and they will seek to rectify those issues from the summer. However, you wonder whether it is simply a matter of personnel over coaching. England do have some excellent props coming through, most notably at tighthead, but they may well have to accept some short-term set-piece pain until those youngsters, such as Asher Opoku-Fordjour, Afolabi Fasogbon and Billy Sela are ready.
All Blacks team v England: Winners and losers as Damian McKenzie ‘plays his way out’ and Scott Robertson makes ‘brave call’ in the pack
New Zealand should have the edge in the scrum but interestingly they have decided to leave out Ethan de Groot, with Tamaiti Williams starting. Williams had a good Rugby Championship and is certainly in better form than De Groot, but it is a big call from Robertson to omit an incredibly experienced loosehead. The Crusaders star is excellent in both the set-piece and loose, though, and will test England’s Stuart.
Other than Williams’ inclusion, the pack is as expected with the bigger calls coming behind the scrum. Cortez Ratima gets the nod at scrum-half, fending off competition from TJ Perenara and injury-returnee Cam Roigard to start alongside Beauden Barrett. Ratima appears to have a superb all-round s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁 set which is readymade for Test rugby, but he must make sure his kicking is pinpoint.
Ratima is joined in the backline by Jordie Barrett, who has recovered from a knee issue to take his place in the XV, and Mark Tele’a. Anton Lienert-Brown, whose playmaking qualities are exceptional, did a fine job against the Wallabies in Barrett’s absence and the 27-year-old will need to provide a similar creative spark to justify his inclusion. Meanwhile, Tele’a is rewarded for an improved display in Japan and he will offer power, pace, work ethic and an aerial presence.
Main head-to-head
There is no other place to look than at fly-half. In July, Marcus Smith came up against Damian McKenzie but this time it will be Beauden Barrett in opposition. The All Blacks legend is unlikely to be the option long-term but, with McKenzie currently failing to get the best out of the backline, he is the only viable option. In Barrett’s only outing in the number 10 jersey in 2024 so far, he played much straighter to the line, bringing New Zealand’s dangerous strike runners into play. That was in contrast to McKenzie, whose penchant for moving laterally tended to cramp the rest of the backline for room.
As for Smith, he continues to develop nicely at Test level. Given the reins in July following an injury to George Ford, the Harlequins playmaker had a very positive tour to Japan and New Zealand, and came back very much in credit. Blessed with incredible qualities with ball in hand, there is no doubting the 25-year-old’s attacking play, but he is starting to bring the requisite control to his game. He is making the right decision more often than not, while his accuracy from the boot, both out of hand and off the tee, is getting better and better.
Prediction
Like in the mid-year series, it will be a tight one, and once again we feel that the All Blacks will just have the edge. England may have home advantage this time around but New Zealand should be better than they were in their previous clashes with the Red Rose. Robertson’s men are also battle-hardened, while it remains to be seen how the hosts respond to having a new defence coach. All Blacks by eight points.
Previous results
2024: New Zealand won 24-17 in Auckland
2024: New Zealand won 16-15 in Dunedin
2022: England and New Zealand drew 25-25 in London
2019: England won 19-7 in Yokohama
2018: New Zealand won 16-15 in London
2014: New Zealand won 24-21 in London
2014: New Zealand won 36-13 in Hamilton
2014: New Zealand won 28-27 in Dunedin
2014: New Zealand won 20-15 in Auckland
2013: New Zealand won 30-22 in London
