Let’s not overthink it.
Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are dancing with history on just about sure playoff teams, so they should — and will — win the MVP awards.
Let’s complicate things.
Francisco Lindor celebrates after hitting an RBI double in the eighth inning of the Mets’ win against the Red Sox at Citi Field on Sept. 3, 2024.Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Ohtani, who won two AL MVPs uniquely as a pitcher and a hitter, is trying to win uniquely in the NL by becoming the first full-time DH to earn the distinction.
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Judge is the frontrunner for his second AL MVP because he might reach 60 homers again all while being last in Outs Above Average among 25 center fielders with at least 200 attempts and last among center fielders with at least 600 innings in Fangraphs’ defensive metric.
Should offensively historic, but less well-rounded players win the sport’s ultimate individual award over, notably for 2024, shortstops who excel at every facet of both sides of the game while being surrounded by less offensive support than Ohtani and Judge? Should Bobby Witt Jr. and Francisco Lindor be able to achieve MVP status against players who rise to potentially 60 homers and a 50 (homer)-50 (steal) campaigns?
In the modern game, many turn to Wins Above Replacement for guidance, because it is viewed as a metric attempt to encompass all a player does (or does not do) into a singular calculation.
But I have noticed an awful lot of Mets fans citing Fangraphs’ version of WAR to make a case for their guy. And I wonder why that is? Oh wait, on that site Lindor led the NL in WAR over Ohtani at 7.2 to 6.7 (all data is going into Wednesday). Conversely, at Baseball Reference — the other main purveyor of this metric — Ohtani was at 7.1 and Lindor 6.2.
Many voters — and onlookers — treat WAR as if it were handed down divinely from a mountaintop, as if it should end all arguments. Except there is an argument on how to calculate it. Batting average, for example, might have lost its significance over the years, but Ty Cobb and Lindor had it computed the same way.
Francisco Lindor belts a third-inning two-run home run during the Mets’ win over the Red Sox at Citi Field on Sept. 3, 2024.Getty Images
I doubt a single voter knows all the ingredients and amounts in the WAR recipe. So I wonder if this really just comes down to the first word of WAR — Win — to decide who best encompasses the second word of MVP — Valuable. Who helps you win the most? A guy who might go 50-for-50 wearing batting gloves exclusively? Or a player who does not offer as much power or speed, but brings elite defense and durability, and — for both Lindor and Witt — leadership, all while not having a lineup co-heavyweight the magnitude of Juan Soto or Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman?
As you would expect, Mets personnel have a rather unanimous opinion. So I asked Boston manager Alex Cora what he would take for 162 games: Ohtani’s outrageous but exclusively offensive output, or Lindor’s all-around genius. Cora, bouncing his fists off each other, made the symbol of a hitter in voting for Ohtani because, “It’s 40/40 (actually 44 homers/46 steals) and might be 50/50, and I love Lindor, he’s been great, he is great, but there are other guys having his kind of season. There is no one else [like Ohtani].”
Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets, runs up the first base line on his single in the first inning on Sept. 4, 2024Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post
I get it. Again, that is the uncomplicated answer — that in a close race, take what you have never seen previously. But I also agree with David Stearns when he said, “It would be tough for me to believe that there’s another player in baseball this year who is more valuable to his team than Francisco Lindor is to us.”
Lindor already has tied Ernie Banks for reaching 30 homers five times as a shortstop, the second-most ever to Alex Rodriguez’s seven. During the most vital stretch of the season, Lindor has a 15-game hitting streak and a career-best 33-game on-base streak after leading off the first Wednesday with a single that began the set-up for a Jesse Winkler grand slam.
He also pivoted double plays in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings, and made a terrific charging grab and throw to nip the speedy leadoff man Jarren Duran to open the eighth — all of those plays made in what was a one-run game before the Mets blew it open to win 8-3. Lindor already was second among all shortstops (to Witt) in Outs Above Average. He also doubled Wednesday and is third in the NL in that category, fifth in homers and ninth in steals.
Shohei Ohtani is having a historic season for the Dodgers.Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
But it is more. Front offices and managers have so much daily to worry about. You know something the Mets never worry about? Who is leading off, playing shortstop and is mentally and spiritually ready to play every inning. Betts, not his Dodgers teammate Ohtani, was the MVP frontrunner in June before fracturing his hand. Arizona second baseman Ketel Marte was side-by-side with Lindor chasing Ohtani before spraining his ankle last month.
Lindor has started 139 of 140 Mets games and played the fourth-most innings in the majors going into Wednesday at 1,215 ²/₃ innings — or 1,215 ²/₃ more defensive innings than Ohtani. Does Ohtani have enough of an offensive advantage to overcome that?
Lindor has been invaluable for the Mets. Is that enough, though — when competing against unicorn history — to be the most valuable player in the National League?
